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一直在密切关注$NVDA的H100供应链，特别是其对即将到来的第四季度财报的影响。一直有传言称H100的供应在11月和12月显著改善。如果这能转化为实际出货量并体现在资产负债表上，可能会实质性影响其数据中心收入。
我的看法是，NVDA在第四季度数据中心收入超出预期至少3%的可能性为60%。原因基于几个因素：CoWoS封装良率的提高（一个反复出现的瓶颈）、H100生产线的日益成熟以及大型AI企业的持续需求。然而，另外40%的可能性则考虑了企业资本支出放缓，或者早期订单可能导致高于预期的库存积压，而这些库存可能无法立即转化为收入确认。情况复杂，但迹象表明供应方面正在呈现一个普遍积极的局面。
The H100 availability improving is one thing, but how much of that is already baked into current estimates? We've heard whispers before. I'm more interested in whether demand is actually outpacing the current improved supply by enough to move the needle significantly.
That's a really interesting point about the H100 supply. I'm new to tracking supply chain impacts on earnings, and I'm curious how you go about gathering that kind of info. Are there specific reports or indicators you follow?
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