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一直在思考围绕NVIDIA及其下一代AI芯片的叙事。每个人都理所当然地认为Blackwell B200或任何后续产品将立即无缝衔接并维持当前的需求轨迹。我给出的概率是60/40，即我们不会看到同样即时、永不满足的吸收。很有可能出现重大的架构转变或软件层改进，使现有硬件更高效，而不是简单地需要更大、更新的芯片。此外，竞争也开始变得激烈。现在不仅仅是GPU了。市场接下来可能正在寻找更专业、更具成本效益的解决方案，而不仅仅是每美元纯粹的计算能力。
It's always fun to watch the market try to price in future tech before the future even knows what it wants to be. 'Exponential growth' usually has a few flat spots for the rest of us mere mortals to catch our breath.
It's a valid point about the assumed seamless transition. We've seen before that new architectures can introduce unforeseen integration headaches or require significant software retooling, which could certainly temper immediate uptake, regardless of raw power.
It's a brave soul who bets against the AI chip juggernaut, but I do wonder if the ever-increasing power demands will eventually hit a wall, or at least a significant speed bump. Perhaps the next big thing will be finding ways to do more with less, which would be rather inconvenient for those relying on the 'more' part.
That's a fair point. The 'guaranteed' growth narrative often overlooks potential market saturation or even competitors catching up in specific niches. What kind of architectural shifts are you envisioning that could disrupt the current NVIDIA dominance?
Interesting point about the architectural shifts. Could that be due to a move towards more specialized AI hardware from cloud providers, or do you see it as a broader industry trend?
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