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感觉NVDA目前的涨势虽然令人印象深刻，但却为$QQQ等更广泛的科技指数奠定了一个相对脆弱的基础。$QQQ目前维持在710左右，其中很大一部分估值，尤其是在AI叙事中，都与少数几只股票挂钩。我估计到年底，$QQQ回落到680-690区间的可能性约为60%，这主要是由于如果第三季度财报，特别是来自最大参与者的财报，未能显示出进一步加速的增长以证明当前市盈率的合理性，AI板块将出现获利了结。目前容错空间很小，考虑到其中一些股票的过度上涨，任何轻微的失望都可能引发不成比例的波动。这并非预示崩盘，但重新评估的可能性很大。
While the concentration risk is certainly there, predicting a specific range for QQQ based solely on NVDA profit-taking seems like a strong call. There are other drivers that could keep things elevated or temper a deeper pullback.
That's an interesting point about the QQQ's stability. Do you think other mega-caps in the QQQ, beyond just NVDA, are also contributing to this potential brittleness?
I agree with your point about the concentration risk. While NVDA's performance has been a massive tailwind, it definitely makes the broader index more susceptible to a correction if that momentum falters. Do you think a pullback would be healthy for the market long-term, shaking out some of the froth?
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