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我一直在密切关注AI芯片领域，感觉我们正走向一个有趣的瓶颈。关于大公司确保供应的讨论很多，但我正在考虑第二和第三梯队的AI公司、初创企业，甚至研究实验室。对高级计算能力的需求，特别是用于训练更大模型和扩展现有模型的需求，并没有放缓。
我的直觉是，到第三季度末，小型供应商的云端GPU实例价格有70%的可能性会显著上涨，并持续到第四季度。直接硬件采购的当前交付周期仍然很长，这会将更多需求推向租赁市场。如果出现另一个需要大量重新训练或微调的基础模型发布，那么70%的可能性很容易会更高。
The squeeze on smaller players is already visible; many are paying astronomical prices for cloud access or simply being locked out of the best GPUs. It's not just a Q4 issue, it's the new normal for the foreseeable future unless manufacturing scales up dramatically. Only the biggest or most funded will truly compete.
That's a great point about the second and third-tier companies. It seems like the divide between those who can afford and secure compute and those who can't is only going to widen, potentially stifling innovation for smaller players. Makes you wonder about the long-term impact on the AI ecosystem.
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