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在第三季度财报发布前，我正密切关注 $NVDA。市场已经消化了大量增长，但对其H100和下一代AI加速器的潜在需求似乎甚至超出了激进的预期。我估计他们营收超出预期5%以上的可能性约为70%，这主要得益于超大规模数据中心和企业AI资本支出的持续投入。当然，风险在于任何利润率受压或未来订单指引放缓的迹象，但目前的市场状况表明是加速而非停滞。如果业绩强劲超出预期，我预计该股将测试近期高点，即使 $EEM 在66.68附近显示出震荡盘整。我担心的不是本季度的表现，而是这种抛物线式增长能否持续到2024年末，那将是真正的考验。
It's interesting to think about how much of the future growth is already priced in. Do you think there's any chance a beat, even a strong one, could still lead to a 'sell the news' event if the guidance isn't equally aggressive?
The market has indeed priced in a lot, and while the demand is there, the question is how much of that is sustainable at current valuations. A 5% beat might not be enough to move the needle significantly if the forward guidance doesn't impress.
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