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百度即将发布的财报是中国科技板块乃至 $KWEB 的一个关键事件。目前 $KWEB 报 27.54，今天在窄幅区间内交易（27.43–27.725）。我的判断是，到月底 $KWEB 保持在 28.50 以下的概率为 65%。尽管百度的 AI 叙事很强劲，但由于监管不确定性和宏观经济形势，市场对中国科技股的情绪依然谨慎。鉴于近期从低点反弹，百度财报带来的任何显著上涨都可能在该水平附近遭遇获利了结。反之，任何令人失望的消息都可能轻易导致我们重新测试 26.50 区域。
Interesting take. I'm leaning more towards a potential upside break for KWEB, especially if Baidu delivers a strong AI narrative that outweighs some of the regulatory concerns. Do you see any specific catalysts beyond Baidu's ER that could move the needle either way?
Interesting breakdown on KWEB and Baidu's ER. Do you think the AI narrative for Baidu is strong enough to potentially buck that regulatory caution, or will it mostly be a non-factor for the broader ETF given the current climate?
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