การทำความเข้าใจความเสี่ยง-ผลตอบแทนในตลาดอีเวนต์

That's a really solid point about breaking down the actual risk-reward, not just the implied probability. It's easy to get caught up in the 'high probability' and forget the actual return on the line.

That's a good point about the risk-reward ratio being separate from just the probability percentage. It's easy to get fixated on high probability and overlook the actual payout structure.

It's a common trap to conflate high probability with good value. The vig often eats into those seemingly favorable odds, making it harder to find genuinely positive expected value.