Refining Margins - Q4 and Q1 outlook

Q4 margins were definitely squeezed more than I anticipated, especially late in the quarter. For Q1, it's hard to be overly optimistic given the current crude trajectory and potential inventory build.

I'm actually seeing some regional divergence. Certain areas, particularly Asia, showed stronger refining margins in Q4. Q1 will largely depend on how quickly global demand recovers from any new lockdowns.

Good question. My focus is more on the crack spreads for specific products rather than the overall refining margin. Jet fuel demand still seems to be struggling, impacting that segment quite a bit. What are others seeing?

While crude prices are a factor, I'd argue product inventory levels and refining capacity utilization will be bigger drivers for Q1 margins. Many refiners are running lean, which could provide some support.