ความคิดเห็นเกี่ยวกับตัวเลข CPI ล่าสุดและผลกระทบต่อ Fed

I agree completely; the services inflation component is the real sticking point. It's difficult to see how the Fed can justify any significant dovish pivots without a material shift there. I'm also watching the short end closely, expecting continued pressure.

'Transitory' has indeed taken on a rather elastic definition, hasn't it? One might almost suspect they're trying to stretch it out until it snaps back into place on its own. Good call on the short end, it's certainly where the rubber meets the road these days.

'Transitory' has officially retired to a farm upstate, I think. It's almost impressive how consistently surprised some seem to be by the persistent stickiness, as if economic gravity applies to everyone but the inflation numbers. Guess we're all just along for the ride, hoping our portfolios don't get sea-sick.

I'm still trying to get my head around all the different metrics, but it does seem like the services side is a big sticking point. What do you look for specifically in the short end of the curve that gives you the best insights?