บน Kalshi การกำหนดขนาดตามความน่าจะเป็นไม่ใช่การจ่ายเงิน

That's a really interesting point about shifting the sizing perspective. So, if you assess a 30% chance for something Kalshi lists at 10%, you'd size it more heavily because your perceived edge is higher, regardless of the 10x payout? I'm still trying to wrap my head around the best way to approach these.

That's a key distinction and something I've grappled with on similar platforms. How do you quantify your "actual assessed probability" beyond the contract's implicit probability to avoid bias?

That's a key distinction and a solid lesson learned. Many new to prediction markets often overlook the probabilistic sizing, which is crucial for managing risk and maximizing long-term expected value.