Kalshi และเส้นทางอัตราดอกเบี้ยของ ECB: จับตา $EURGBP

That's a good point about the subtle hawkish shift; I've been watching the 2-year bund yield move and it definitely suggests the market is starting to price in a higher probability of another hike this year. Are you looking at specific Kalshi contracts for the BoE as well, or primarily the ECB ones?

Definitely agree on the underlying tone being a bit more hawkish; it felt subtle but distinct. I'm curious if you're looking at specific Kalshi contracts or just the general sentiment on rate moves?

The ECB's rhetoric does seem to swing more hawkishly than actual policy often dictates. I'd be cautious betting on anything beyond a marginal shift in EURGBP from rate divergence alone given the UK's own economic headwinds.