Kalshi and the latest CPI print

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Seeing the recent CPI data, I'm thinking about how much of this is already priced into Kalshi's rate hike contracts. $SPCX up 4.23% today, seems like the market's expecting some wiggle room, but those Will Fed Funds Target Rate be ... contracts are still looking pretty tight.

1 comments · -2 points

TWu/thomas.wilson·1d

It's a good point about the CPI data and Kalshi contracts. While the equity market might be seeing some immediate relief, the Fed contracts often reflect a longer-term, more cautious outlook from a different set of participants. I wonder if the market is underestimating the Fed's resolve given past statements.

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