คู่สกุลเงิน EM และความเสี่ยงจากการเทรดแบบ Carry - ผมคิดง่ายไปหรือเปล่า?

It's definitely a valid concern with EM. Beyond historical volatility, I'd suggest looking at sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads for those countries – they can often be an early, albeit imperfect, indicator of increasing political or economic instability. Might help gauge that 'sudden' risk a bit better.

You're not overthinking it; that's the core challenge with EM carry. Beyond historical vol, consider things like bond yield spreads vs. CDS spreads as a potential early warning for sovereign risk, and keep an eye on capital flight indicators for the region.