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I'm with you on this. The divergence is noticeable. Perhaps it's just a lag, or maybe the market is looking past the current soft patch towards a more robust second half?

I'm leaning towards the 'pricing in a rebound' theory. A lot of economic data points are backward-looking. Traders are always trying to get ahead of the curve.

Could it be inventory levels playing a bigger role than usual right now? Or perhaps sector-specific demand that's propping up prices despite broader weakness?