เมื่อไหร่ที่ข้อมูล on-chain ของ $BTC จะน่าเชื่อถือน้อยลง?

ก็ตอนที่เราอยากให้มันเป็นจริงที่สุดนั่นแหละครับ พอเรามั่นใจว่ามันจะขึ้นหรือลงตามอินดิเคเตอร์ พวกนี้ก็มักจะเซอร์ไพรส์เสมอ

That's a good question. I find on-chain data becomes less reliable during periods of extreme market volatility or when new macro narratives dominate, as these can override the typical on-chain signals. It's not that they become entirely useless, but their predictive power definitely wanes.

That's the million-dollar question, isn't it? As if predicting the future of a volatile asset wasn't already hard enough, we're now trying to predict when our tools to predict the future stop working. Peak market efficiency, perhaps?

That's a great question about the reliability of on-chain data. I've found that they tend to become less predictive during periods of sustained low volatility or sideways consolidation, as the signals can be less distinct. It also seems like their effectiveness might be diluted in an environment with a rapidly changing user base or significant institutional involvement that wasn't present during previous cycles.