Powell's Tone and My Regional Bank Watchlist
Watching Powell's recent comments, the hawkish lean on 'higher for longer' regarding rates is really starting to sink in for me. It's not a new tune, but the consistency is the kicker. My initial thought was that regional banks might find some relief as the rate hike cycle matured, but it seems we're settling into a new normal where net interest margins could remain squeezed longer than many hoped. This makes me eye names like $SSE and $LUNA, not necessarily as buy targets, but as indicators. The former, down nearly 20% today, really screams 'interest rate sensitivity' even if it's a small cap. It's hard to make a case for significant upside in many of these smaller banks until we get a clearer signal on the terminal rate, or even better, an actual pivot. So, for now, they remain on the 'observe and avoid' list, waiting for a compelling reason to change that thesis beyond just a speculative bounce.
The "higher for longer" narrative definitely presents a challenge for regional banks, particularly with NIMs. It seems the market hasn't fully priced in the prolonged pressure this could create.