USDCAD - Still eyeing that 1.40586 level, not a breakout yet
Been watching $USDCAD for a bit now, and today's price action around the upper end of its daily range (1.40002–1.40586) is interesting, but I'm not convinced we're seeing a sustained move yet. The move up to 1.40185 and the marginal push past that intraday high of 1.40586 feels more like a test than a decisive breakout.
What I'm looking for is a clear daily close above 1.40586, ideally with some volume to back it up. Without that, I'm still viewing this as consolidation within a broader range, or possibly a fakeout. The risk that would invalidate a further upward continuation scenario for me would be a swift rejection back down towards the 1.40000 handle, or even a close below the daily open. If we don't get that follow-through, then a push lower towards the recent support could be on the cards again. Always a cautious approach with these pairs.
I'm with you on that. The intraday pushes often feel like liquidity grabs around those key levels rather than genuine conviction. A strong daily close above it would definitely be a more reliable signal for continuation.