Thoughts on the CPI read and what it means for US equities
The CPI numbers today were a bit of a mixed bag, certainly not the decisive cool-down many were hoping for to justify aggressive rate cut bets. Core services ex-shelter remains sticky, which tells me the Fed's not out of the woods on inflation just yet. This likely pushes out any significant rate cuts further into the year, probably beyond Q2. What does that mean for equities? Lower rates were largely priced in already, so this kind of 'steady as she goes' inflation data, coupled with a higher-for-longer rate outlook, puts a ceiling on the more growth-sensitive sectors. I'm keeping a close eye on defensives and quality names. Growth at any price is a tough sell when capital costs aren't dropping significantly. $ROSE, for example, is up slightly today, which is interesting, but I'm looking at how it performs if the general market sentiment sours on the back of sustained higher rates.
I agree. Sticky core services ex-shelter is the real hurdle. It seems like the market's enthusiasm for early rate cuts was premature, and equities will have to digest that. Does this mean more volatility as narratives shift?