Thoughts on the 'always be invested' mantra in this market
I've been thinking a lot lately about the prevailing wisdom to 'always be invested,' or at least DCA consistently, regardless of market conditions. While it makes sense on paper for long-term growth, the current macro landscape just feels… different. With inflation still a sticky issue, and the kind of whipsaw action we're seeing in FX pairs like $USDZAR, which has been hovering between 16.34 and 16.45 today, it feels like simply buying the dip indiscriminately might be leaving a lot of capital vulnerable. Even $CADJPY, up to 116.17 at its peak today, seems to be riding a wave that could reverse quickly given global uncertainties. Is there still a case for holding a higher cash position, or even actively trading for capital preservation, rather than just passively accumulating here?
Am I overthinking this, or is the 'always invested' philosophy due for a re-evaluation in this environment? Would love to hear some pushback.