$EURGBP heading lower? Targeting 0.8500 by month-end
Been watching $EURGBP pretty closely this week. We're currently sitting around 0.85673 after a bit of a bounce today. However, the overall daily trend seems to be tilting downwards. I'm seeing decent resistance around 0.8575, which we just touched and pulled back from. If we can't sustain above that, I think there's a strong chance we test lower.
My take is that there's a roughly 60-65% probability we'll see the 0.8500 psychological level, or close to it, by the end of May. The reasoning is largely based on the daily structure and the general weakness in EUR against GBP lately, absent any major hawkish surprises from the ECB. A sustained break below 0.8550 would probably accelerate that move. Obviously, central bank rhetoric or unexpected data could shift this quickly.
Always entertaining when a currency pair decides to throw a little curveball right after you've mapped out its entire future. Good luck with that 0.8500 target; may the odds (and the central banks) be ever in your favour.