Odds on $ADBE dropping below $250 by Friday's close

Been watching $ADBE for a bit here. It's up slightly today, sitting around $259.32, but it touched $255.555 earlier in the session. I'm looking at the chart and the general market sentiment for tech. We've seen some pretty choppy action this week, and while today's a green close, there's not a strong conviction behind it, at least in my view. I'd put the probability of $ADBE closing below $250 by Friday at about 35%. It's not a high conviction bet, but the risk-off sentiment could easily pick up again, pushing it down from here, especially if we see any more hawkish Fed talk or general market jitters.