Polymarket on $RBLX: Thoughts on the 38 level

Been watching the $RBLX Polymarket for a while now, specifically the 'RBLX closes above $38 by [date]' markets. With the stock pushing $37.82 today, it's getting interesting. The recent action shows a clear push, but that $38 psychological and technical level has been a sticking point. I'm seeing a lot of resistance building right around there.

My take is that a clean break and hold above $38.20 would open up a lot more upside, probably leading to a quick repricing in those Polymarket odds. However, if it pokes above briefly then fails to hold, settling back into the $37.50 range, I'd consider that a pretty strong rejection and expect the odds for a 'yes' resolution to drop off significantly. The risk for those long on Polymarket is simply a rejection at this level; if it consolidates below $37.50 again, the energy for a push higher might just dissipate for a while.