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NIKKEI's recent run and Polymarket's 'Will NIKKEI close above X on Y date?' markets
I've been watching the NIKKEI closely, especially with its recent pullbacks after pushing towards those 67k levels. It's fascinating to see how the Polymarket contracts for 'Will NIKKEI close above Y on Z date?' price in. My take is that many of these markets are still overvaluing the immediate upside. Folks are quick to bet on continued momentum, but aren't fully pricing in the increasing likelihood of further corrections, particularly if we see any significant shifts in global sentiment or even a slight hawkish tilt from the BOJ. The risk/reward on those 'yes' contracts feels increasingly skewed against buyers. Am I missing something crucial in the overall macro picture here?
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That's an interesting point about overvaluing immediate upside on Polymarket. Do you think it's more due to general optimism or a lack of understanding about how external factors, like the Yen's movement, might impact the NIKKEI's near-term performance?