Understanding Implied Probability on Polymarket

Been seeing a lot of folks new to Polymarket struggle with what the numbers actually mean, beyond just "higher number good." Let's talk about implied probability, because it's crucial for assessing value.

When you see a market for, say, $ATOM hitting $10 by end of year, and the "YES" shares are trading at $0.20, that $0.20 represents a 20% implied probability that the event will occur. Conversely, the "NO" shares trading at $0.80 means an 80% implied probability it won't. It's a simple calculation: share price * 100 = implied probability. This isn't just an abstract number; it's the market's collective belief, priced in. Your job is to determine if you think the market is overestimating or underestimating that probability. If you believe the real probability of $ATOM hitting $10 is higher than 20% (say, 30%), then buying YES shares at $0.20 offers positive expected value. If you think it's lower, you'd consider the NO. Same goes for a market like "Will $ATOM close above $1.4929 on Friday?" If YES shares are $0.60, that's a 60% implied probability. You have to ask yourself: do I genuinely believe there's a 60% chance it closes above $1.4929? That's the edge you're looking for.