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BoC's pivot and CAD strength
Watching the CAD strengthen after the BoC's recent comments. Market seems to be pricing in a more hawkish stance than anticipated a few weeks ago. The $EURCAD move lower confirms this. I'm keeping an eye on how Polymarket odds shift for the next BoC rate decision. If this momentum holds, it could affect broader sentiment on commodity currencies.
Specifically looking at the "Will BoC cut rates by X date?" markets. A lot of the early 'yes' contracts are underwater now, reflecting the hawkish shift. It's interesting to see the quick re-pricing from a few basis points to a more sustained narrative.
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The BoC's recent shift does seem to be priced in, but I'd be cautious about predicting long-term momentum based on Polymarket odds alone. The market's interpretation of "hawkish" can be quite fluid.