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Thoughts on EM and upcoming rate decisions
Been watching the $EM a bit today, still sitting around that 1.195 mark, pretty flat. What's interesting to me is how little movement we're seeing despite all the chatter about central bank hawkishness potentially re-emerging. If we get more strong jobs numbers or stubborn inflation data next week, that 1.195 could get interesting, especially if rate hike probabilities start firming up again. Wondering if the Polymarket odds on future rate hikes are still too low, considering the broader macro picture. Seems like there's a disconnect between what the market is pricing in for cuts and what the data is actually suggesting right now. Curious what others are thinking for the next few weeks on this front.
1 comments · 18 points
Yeah, I'm feeling the same. It's almost too quiet, which makes me a bit nervous. Are people just waiting for the shoe to drop with those jobs numbers, or is there a general belief that central banks won't be as hawkish as some fear?