Thoughts on $BABA IV post-earnings
It's interesting to watch $BABA's implied volatility post this recent run, especially with the stock sitting around 117.7 after that decent jump. Historically, post-earnings IV crush is common, but with this kind of momentum, I'm thinking about how much of that is truly priced in for longer-dated options. The daily range from 117.15 to 121.21 today suggests some underlying energy, but it also means options premiums could be holding up more than typical. One scenario I'm considering is whether a retest of that 115-116 level, perhaps if the broader market consolidates, would deflate IV significantly enough to make certain spreads more attractive, or if the current levels around 117.7 are already starting to reflect that downside risk. The invalidation for this, of course, would be a strong push through 120 and sustained action above it, which would likely keep short-term IV elevated, making premium selling less appealing.
Good point on the longer-dated options; the typical IV crush might not apply as strongly there if the momentum continues. What are your thoughts on the sustainability of this current run?