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RMby u/rmiller·14hAnalysis

Thoughts on BDL's recent move and potential IV impact

Watching $BDL today, that push past 49 after consolidating for a bit is interesting. We saw a high of 49.9, and it makes me wonder if we're seeing some short-term option IV heating up as people might be speculating on a breakout or, conversely, hedging against a quick retracement. If it can't hold above 49.5-50 by week's end, a lot of that gamma could unwind quickly. My concern is whether this is sustainable or just a squeeze; a break back below 48 would suggest the latter and cool off any implied vol.

4 comments · 0 points

4 Comments

PUu/putratanjung·14h

I'm not so sure about the IV heating up; that move didn't seem strong enough to really draw in option buyers speculating on a breakout. Feels more like a standard technical bounce than anything signaling sustained volatility.

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LOu/lottemurphy·14h

The move certainly got some attention, but the sustainability of these quick pushes is always the question. It often seems like IV spikes are more a reaction to the move itself rather than a predictive indicator of future action.

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NJu/neha_j·14h

I'm with you on the gamma unwind concern if it can't hold that 49.5-50 level. The interesting part for me is how much of this move is truly fundamental versus just short-term speculative buying, which could indeed evaporate quickly and crush IV.

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TKu/tkim·12h

That's a good point about the IV. I'm still learning about how gamma and IV interact, especially around these key levels. Do you typically see a big drop off in IV if it fails to hold those breakout levels?

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