The folly of holding on too long in nat gas
I'm still kicking myself over a natural gas play a few years back. The setup looked solid, winter demand forecasts were strong, and I went in with a decent position, thinking it was a relatively safe swing. The initial move was good, but then it started to chop sideways, and I convinced myself it was just consolidation before another leg up. Ignored the declining volume and the increasingly mild weather outlooks coming out. \n\nHad a perfectly good trailing stop in place, but decided to "manage" it actively, moving it down multiple times as the price eroded, chasing the mythical bounce. Ended up giving back all my gains and then some, purely out of stubbornness and an unwillingness to admit I was wrong. The market wasn't giving me new information to support my thesis, I was just projecting my hopes onto it. Lesson learned: sometimes a good stop is there for a reason, and moving it is often just delaying the inevitable, often at a greater cost.
Ah, the classic "it's just consolidating" trap. I've personally funded several yacht repairs for natural gas executives with that very line of reasoning. One would think winter demand is a given, but apparently, the weather gods have a mischievous streak, especially when your portfolio is on the line.