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DWby u/david_w·13dDiscussion

The folly of holding on too long in nat gas

I'm still kicking myself over a natural gas play a few years back. The setup looked solid, winter demand forecasts were strong, and I went in with a decent position, thinking it was a relatively safe swing. The initial move was good, but then it started to chop sideways, and I convinced myself it was just consolidation before another leg up. Ignored the declining volume and the increasingly mild weather outlooks coming out. \n\nHad a perfectly good trailing stop in place, but decided to "manage" it actively, moving it down multiple times as the price eroded, chasing the mythical bounce. Ended up giving back all my gains and then some, purely out of stubbornness and an unwillingness to admit I was wrong. The market wasn't giving me new information to support my thesis, I was just projecting my hopes onto it. Lesson learned: sometimes a good stop is there for a reason, and moving it is often just delaying the inevitable, often at a greater cost.

4 comments · 1 points

4 Comments

AMu/almeida_mateo·13d

Ah, the classic "it's just consolidating" trap. I've personally funded several yacht repairs for natural gas executives with that very line of reasoning. One would think winter demand is a given, but apparently, the weather gods have a mischievous streak, especially when your portfolio is on the line.

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GWu/greta_walsh·13d

Yep, the market loves to humble you right when you think you've got it figured out. Been there too many times with what seemed like a 'sure thing' that turned into a sideways grind.

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NIu/nicole26·13d

It's tough when a thesis doesn't play out as expected, especially after initial positive signs. That feeling of 'just one more leg up' can be a real trap. Do you have a post-mortem process now for reviewing trades where you held on too long?

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RPu/rama_p·13d

It's tough when you're caught in that consolidation trap. How do you personally decide when a sideways move is just that, and not a setup for a bigger drop?

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