Watching $NG dip to $5.18 today and bounce off that $5.075 low, it really makes me wonder if the recent price action is getting too far ahead of the actual supply/demand picture, especially with the weather turning. Am I missing something crucial in the underlying fundamentals, or is this more technical-driven at the moment? Push back if you see it differently.
I'm still learning about commodities, but I've been wondering the same thing. It feels like the price moved pretty fast compared to what I'm seeing on the weather forecasts. Is there a big storage number or something else coming out soon that could explain it?
It's interesting you bring this up. I've been watching the same action on $NG. Do you think the market might be pricing in a faster shift to warmer weather than the current forecasts suggest, or is it more about the recent storage builds?
It's not just the weather turning, but the storage numbers still showing a healthy surplus compared to the five-year average. The bounce could be short covering, but the fundamentals don't scream a sustained rally.