Fed's tone and its impact on energy demand — anyone else watching for a pivot?
Been closely watching the recent CPI numbers and the Fed's commentary. It feels like the market is still pricing in a pretty hawkish stance, but I'm starting to wonder if the cracks are showing. If we see any real shift in the Fed's tone, say a clear signal of slowing rate hikes or even a pivot, how do you think that's going to affect overall energy demand, and subsequently, oil prices? Thinking about how that might feed into $FI and other energy plays.
I'm specifically curious about the lag effect. Would a potential dovish turn by the Fed immediately boost demand sentiment, or would it take a few quarters to really filter through the economy? Trying to gauge whether to add to existing positions or wait for more clarity. Anyone else seeing this as a key inflection point for their energy watchlist?
A dovish pivot could definitely boost demand expectations, but the impact on oil prices might be tempered by any recessionary concerns that would have driven the pivot in the first place.