Shifting gears to natural gas for a moment. Beyond the immediate winter weather plays, what are the longer-term structural views on NG? LNG export capacity coming online, US production dynamics, and European demand stability seem to be the key drivers.
I'm a bit more bearish on the long-term European demand stability. The push for renewables there is aggressive, and while NG is a bridge fuel, that bridge might shorten.
Good question. I think the LNG export capacity is definitely the biggest game changer long-term, especially with Europe still needing alternatives.
While LNG exports are growing, the cost of liquefaction and transport isn't negligible. Does that cap how high prices can go sustainably for US producers?
US production has been surprisingly resilient, but environmental pressures could slow future growth. That's a wild card for sure.