Watching XOP at current levels, potential for a false break

Been looking at the $XOP this morning, specifically around this 180 handle. We saw it poke above 182.00 earlier, reaching 182.40, which on a quick glance might look like a solid breakout from the consolidation we've seen since late last week. However, the follow-through, or lack thereof, has me a bit cautious.

The real test for me is whether we can sustain above 180.00-180.50 into the close. If we drop back down and close significantly below that 180.00 mark, say around 179.00 or lower, then today's push higher might just be a false break of that previous resistance. It would set up a scenario where we could see a retest of the lower bound of that range, perhaps towards 176.00-177.00. The risk to this perspective, obviously, is if we find some late-day buying pressure and hold firmly above 180.50, especially if we see increasing volume. That would invalidate the 'false break' idea and suggest a legitimate push higher is indeed underway. Just my two cents on it.