The trap of 'just one more'
Looking back, one of the more consistent mistakes that really compounded losses for me in crude, particularly during the more volatile periods, was overtrading, specifically the 'just one more' scenario. It wasn't about revenge trading initially, but rather a perceived edge after a decent run. You'd hit a couple of good setups, feel confident, then instead of stepping away, you'd find yourself hunting for another entry, even when the setup wasn't as clean or the confluence of factors had diminished. This often led to forcing trades, accepting wider stops than usual because of that lingering confidence, and eventually, giving back a good chunk of the gains. The market doesn't care about your recent win rate; each trade is independent. Learning to disengage after hitting a profit target or a predefined number of trades per session has been crucial, even if it feels like you're leaving money on the table. Most times, you're not.
This resonates. It's that shift from calculated risk to a more emotional, almost gambling, mindset that gets many. Understanding when your 'edge' is actually just overconfidence is crucial.