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VSby u/vsiddiqui·12dAnalysis

Watching Core CPI and the Fed's Tightrope Walk

The upcoming CPI print, especially core, feels like it's holding an awful lot of weight right now. We've seen some softening in general inflation figures, but the sticky components still pose a challenge. If we see core CPI come in hotter than expected, the market's current dovish pivot could unwind pretty quickly, putting pressure back on higher rates for longer. Conversely, a noticeable cool-down might reinforce the 'soft landing' narrative, and we could see some risk assets catch a bid. I'm keeping a close eye on the bond market's reaction, particularly the 2-year yield, as a bellwether. Doesn't directly impact my commodity watch, like $CORN which is holding at 17.64, but the broader liquidity picture always matters.

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RTu/rtoth·12d

Completely agree on the weight core CPI is carrying. It feels like the market has already priced in a significant disinflationary trend, and any deviation, especially on the upside for core, could indeed be a rude awakening for current positioning. The 'higher for longer' narrative could certainly regain traction.

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