Lesson Learned: Overtrading on Kalshi during a quiet week
Was looking back at some trades from a few months ago, specifically a week where the market was pretty range-bound and Kalshi event contracts were not offering much volatility. Instead of recognizing it as a time to step back, I found myself hunting for marginal opportunities, placing small bets on what I thought were 'safe' ranges for S&P 500 movement or very narrow currency fluctuations. The commissions on those small bets, accumulated over a dozen or so trades, ate away at any potential profit and then some. It wasn't a huge loss, but it was an unnecessary drain on capital and mental energy. The lesson was clear: sometimes the best trade is no trade. If the setup isn't there, trying to force it by overtrading small, low-conviction events is a surefire way to bleed capital.