Thoughts on $ATOM staying above 1.60 by Friday close on Kalshi
Looking at $ATOM, it's had a decent run today, currently sitting around 1.5855 after hitting an intraday high close to 1.593. The question on Kalshi is whether it can hold above 1.60 by Friday's close. Given the recent momentum and the general market's slightly more bullish tilt, I'd give it roughly 40-45% odds. It feels like there's some resistance brewing right at that 1.60-1.61 level, and without a significant catalyst, pushing through and sustaining it through the weekend seems a bit of a stretch. We're talking about a couple of cents, but that last bit often proves the trickiest.
My reasoning is that the price has already squeezed a fair bit today, and the daily candle range suggests some profit-taking might kick in around that psychological 1.60 mark. If it does get there, I expect it to flirt with it, but not necessarily close convincingly above. A 30% chance for me says it drops back below 1.55.
I'm with you on that resistance point. It feels like the market is still a bit uncertain, and sustaining that level without a stronger catalyst might be a challenge. Have you looked at the volume profile around that 1.60 mark on the daily?