Thoughts on Kalshi CAD contracts re: 95.88

Been watching the $CAD contracts on Kalshi, particularly those tied to specific spot levels. That 95.879 level, which we saw touched earlier, has me scratching my head a bit. It feels like a magnetic pull, doesn't it? If we get a sustained break and hold above 95.88 on the underlying spot, especially on decent volume, I'd consider my bearish bias on the short-term Canadian strength contracts pretty well invalidated. Right now, it just looks like a potential retest before another dip, but the market's got a funny way of making you look silly.

Conversely, a strong rejection from this zone, maybe a quick pop then a sharp pullback, would reinforce the idea that 95.88 is a ceiling for now. It's all about the follow-through, as always. The beauty of Kalshi is you can really fine-tune the scenarios, but it also means there are a million ways to be wrong if you're not paying attention to the nuance of the underlying.