Watching Energy and Tech for divergences after the latest CPI print

It's been interesting to watch the market reaction post-CPI. We saw a print that was broadly in line, perhaps a touch hotter on core services, and the immediate reaction wasn't the violent sell-off some might have expected. Instead, we're seeing some rotation, with energy names getting a bid and parts of tech holding up surprisingly well.

I'm particularly interested in this divergence. Crude is certainly firm, and that's reflected in something like $BNO up 1.23% today, trading around 54.15. $XOP is also showing strength, sitting at 190.195, up 1.46%. This suggests a persistent belief in sustained demand or perhaps supply constraints, irrespective of the current rate outlook. On the other hand, we've got names like $ZS up 2.20% at 178.7983. This resilience in higher-duration tech, especially cloud names, suggests the market isn't entirely convinced we're heading into a deep rate-hike cycle, or perhaps there's a flight to quality within growth.

For Kalshi, this opens up some interesting contract ideas. I'm keeping an eye on contracts related to sector performance divergences – e.g., will XOP outperform ZS over the next quarter? Or specific inflation components like services inflation vs. headline. It's about figuring out which narrative holds more sway beyond the immediate data point, and how that translates into relative strength.