CADJPY testing resistance, eyes on BoC and BoJ

Interesting setup on $CADJPY today, hitting what looks like a fairly significant resistance zone around 116.00. We've seen a couple of probes higher over the last few sessions, but it keeps getting knocked back. On the daily, that 116.00-116.20 area has been quite sticky since late May, acting as a ceiling multiple times. Looking at the current price, we're at 115.84, just shy of that, with the daily high at 116.02. If it manages a decisive close above 116.20, especially on higher volume, that would open the door for a push towards 116.80 or even 117.00. The invalidation point for that bullish scenario, in my humble opinion, would be a break and hold below 115.50 – that would suggest a potential double top or at least a deeper correction.

Fundamentally, we’ve got the BoC on Wednesday and BoJ on Friday, which adds a layer of uncertainty. The market is pricing in a rate cut from the BoC, which theoretically should weaken CAD, but the BoJ is always the wildcard. If BoC surprises with a hold, or BoJ comes off as dovish, it could really throw a wrench in things. For now, I'm watching that 116.00-116.20 zone like a hawk. It's either a trampoline or a brick wall, and the next 48 hours could give us a clearer picture.