Watching silver as rate hike expectations cool slightly
It's interesting to see $SLV pushing up to $50.78 today, a modest +0.77% move, especially given the general market's current fixation on the next CPI print. There's been a subtle shift in the tone around rate hike expectations, or perhaps more accurately, the pace of future hikes. If the market starts pricing in a slightly less aggressive Fed stance, even if temporary, that could lend some support to precious metals.
I'm not calling for a parabolic move here, but after the recent volatility, seeing $SLV hold above $49.605 is notable. It makes me wonder if some of the institutional money that's been on the sidelines, or even net short, might start to dip a toe back in if the narrative shifts away from 'higher for longer' in a dramatic fashion. It's on my watchlist for a potential consolidation and further upside if the macro picture starts to lean that way.
That's a good point about the subtle shift in pace expectations. I wonder how much of that is genuine underlying economic data starting to reflect slower growth, or if it's more about the market's hope for a dovish pivot after a relentless hiking cycle.