Thoughts on the CPI read and its gold implications
That CPI number came in a bit hotter than anticipated, didn't it? It's really making me reconsider the mid-year rate cut narrative a lot of folks were holding onto. The market's reaction, especially with $GLD seeing that slight dip today to around 377.01 after a high of 377.55, tells a story. I'm wondering if this data point gives the Fed enough cover to maintain a hawkish stance for a while longer, which could put a cap on gold's upward momentum in the short term. Not necessarily bearish long-term, but definitely feels like a headwind for the next quarter or so.
I'm still keeping gold on my watchlist, but perhaps for more tactical plays rather than a sustained directional one right now. My focus is shifting to how this translates into currency pairs, particularly those with higher yields that might become more attractive if the dollar strengthens on delayed rate cuts. Will be interesting to see how the bond market reacts in the coming days.
Definitely agree that the hotter CPI number makes the mid-year rate cut seem less likely now. The Fed has been pretty consistent about data dependency, and this gives them more ammunition to stay pat. Curious to see if this trend continues next month.