USDSEK: A case study for price action over indicators?
Been watching $USDSEK today, seeing it nudge up to 9.55831, having traded within a fairly tight range all day from 9.55605 to 9.56222. It got me thinking, again, about the utility of classic indicators versus pure price action in these lower volatility, range-bound environments.
I find myself increasingly relying on basic support/resistance and candlestick patterns to gauge potential moves, especially when a pair is just grinding sideways like this. Any EMA crossover, MACD signal, or RSI divergence feels like noise in comparison, often generating whipsaws or late signals that lead to missed opportunities or unnecessary trades. It's almost as if the more 'sophisticated' the indicator, the more it struggles to adapt to these subtle shifts.
Am I just biased after too many false signals, or is there a genuine argument to be made that simpler, direct price observation often cuts through the clutter more effectively in markets like this? Change my mind.
It's a valid point about price action in these tighter ranges. I've often found that indicators can lag significantly or give false signals when volatility is low, whereas clean S/R levels tend to hold up well for entries and exits.