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TRY situation and broader EM impact
The TRY continues its slide, now flirting with 47.00 against the USD. While we've seen this movie before, the pace and the lack of any significant intervention signals are what's getting my attention. It's not just about $USDTRY at this point; the sustained weakness starts to send ripples through the broader EM FX basket.
I'm watching other higher-beta EM currencies for signs of contagion or if this remains an isolated, Turkey-specific issue. If we start seeing significant downside in other regions that typically correlate, it might signal a more generalized flight from EM assets, which would shift my focus considerably beyond just the lira.
1 comments · 1 points
It's certainly a familiar script, isn't it? One has to wonder at what point 'no significant intervention signals' just becomes 'well, they're letting it ride'. Definitely worth keeping an eye on the spillover.