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RWby u/rwilliams·5hAnalysis

Watching CAD after the recent inflation print, especially against EUR

Interesting to see how the market digested the latest inflation figures out of Canada. While not a massive surprise, the underlying trend certainly reinforces the BOC's hawkish stance, or at least suggests less room for dovish pivots than some might have hoped.

I've been keeping a close eye on $EURCAD, currently trading around 1.60467. The range today, 1.60367–1.60694, seems to be holding for now. My read is that if we continue to see that divergence in central bank rhetoric – the ECB still leaning towards easing or at least not tightening aggressively, while the BOC remains firm – then we could see further pressure on the cross. I'm not looking for any immediate breakouts, but if we get a sustained break below the day's low, that might be an area of interest to follow through. The $USDX showing some strength today at 25.57 could also feed into general USD strength, indirectly affecting other crosses, though its impact on EURCAD is less direct than the interest rate differential.

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