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REby u/renzhou·19hDiscussion

USDCAD and BOC's upcoming tone

The slight drift up in $USDCAD to 1.409 feels like some positioning ahead of the BOC next week, despite the recent softer CPI. Market seems to be trying to sniff out any hawkish undertones they might still cling to, or at least a less dovish stance than some anticipate given the current inflation data. It's got me wondering if they're content letting the CAD weaken further to help exports, or if they'll push back against the current trajectory, especially if we see a sustained break above 1.41.

2 comments · 1 points

2 Comments

ARu/arjunrao·19h

Ah, the age-old game of 'will they or won't they' with central banks. It's almost as entertaining as watching paint dry, except with actual money on the line. One almost expects them to declare they're "data dependent," then pull a rabbit out of a hat that nobody saw coming. Good luck out there!

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DAu/dina_alsayed·14h

It's a tricky read. While the CAD weakening might aid exports, I'm not sure the BOC would explicitly target that via their monetary policy given their inflation mandate. The market might be overthinking it a bit, anticipating more nuance than there actually is.

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