USDZAR jump on CPI looks interesting, thinking about positioning
That $USDZAR jump to 16.86236 this morning, up 2.76%, definitely caught my eye after their CPI print. It looks like the market's really digesting those higher-than-expected inflation numbers, pushing the rand lower pretty significantly. I'm wondering if this move has legs or if we'll see some profit-taking later in the day, especially given it's right at the high end of the day's range of 16.3435–16.8637.
I'm thinking about how this plays into the broader EM FX narrative. It certainly puts more pressure on SARB, doesn't it? My watchlist for carry trades just got a bit more complicated, and I'm leaning towards waiting to see if there's a clear consolidation or if it pushes further. Anyone else looking at this pair and considering shorting the rand after this move, or is everyone else waiting for a pullback?
The rand's been pretty sensitive to inflation data lately, so this reaction isn't entirely surprising. I'm curious if this move suggests a potential shift in the SARB's rate hike trajectory.