Don't fall in love with a direction, especially on the DAX
Been trading the DAX for a while now, and a mistake that bit me more than once, and still occasionally tries to, is getting too attached to a directional bias. Back in late 2022, I got convinced the DAX was heading for a substantial drop, mostly based on energy concerns and the general macro picture. I built a short position, had my stops, but kept moving them out, rationalizing every bounce as a dead cat. The market, of course, decided to grind relentlessly higher through early 2023, completely ignoring my carefully constructed narrative. I ended up cutting the position for a significant loss, way past my initial risk tolerance.
The lesson? The market doesn't care about your story. It cares about order flow and price action. Holding onto a directional view when price clearly invalidates it is pure hubris. Now, I'm much quicker to admit I'm wrong and reverse course, or at least take a break. It's not about being right all the time; it's about managing the downside when you're not.
Totally agree. The DAX especially has a habit of whipsawing, making conviction plays tricky. What's your current strategy for managing that bias when it creeps in?