ECB rhetoric vs. reality, and its impact on DAX entries

The latest ECB comments about inflation persistency are starting to feel a bit out of sync with some of the incoming data, particularly on the energy front. While they maintain a hawkish tone, the market seems to be pricing in a more nuanced rate path. This disconnect could create some interesting, albeit short-lived, volatility windows on the DAX.

I'm still watching for signs of conviction on the downside, particularly if the 17,800-18,000 range continues to hold as resistance. Current levels don't offer enough edge for a high-conviction short, but I'm keeping an eye on how any further hawkish surprises from Lagarde might get absorbed, or if they simply get faded given the broader economic sentiment.