Thoughts on EM and the recent CPI print

The latest CPI numbers, while showing some moderation, still have me thinking about the resilience of various EM central banks. We've seen a few of them front-run the Fed on rate hikes, and it's starting to show up in currency stability, at least for some. This divergence could create interesting opportunities, especially if the narrative shifts from 'global inflation' to 'localized inflation battles'. I'm keeping a closer eye on countries with improving terms of trade and robust current accounts; they might be better positioned to weather any lingering global slowdown.

My watchlist is getting re-weighted towards those with less exposure to the most aggressive hawkish pivots from the developed world. It’s less about picking the fastest horse and more about finding the one with the most stable footing in what's still a pretty choppy environment. The energy prices, even with $NG down around 5.83 today, are still a wild card for many importing nations, so that remains a key filter for me.